Are These Iowa Unemployment Numbers Right With All the Layoffs Lately?

I saw this report on the news and wondered how it could be.  The report was about Iowa's unemployment numbers and how they've stayed roughly the same 2.8% and this is while the rest of the country's numbers went up.  It would also be helpful if you knew jargon like seasonal adjustment because that's a factor in figuring all this unemployment out. With all the layoffs lately, how could the numbers stay almost unchanged?

What is seasonal adjustment?

I'm learning that seasonal adjustment is a method used to smooth out regular, predictable changes in employment and unemployment numbers that happen at the same times every year, such as due to weather, harvests, holidays, or school schedules. This technique removes these seasonal effects from the data, making it easier to see the true trends and changes in the labor market from month to month. Oh, I see, okay, I really don't.  I'm shaking my head yes like I get it but I'm not smart so hopefully you understand and as long as You get it, that's cool.

In general, the monthly employment and unemployment figures you see in the news are seasonally adjusted. This adjustment helps in comparing data across different months. However, annual averages are based on raw, not seasonally adjusted data. Raw data and hopefully you're not allergic to raw data.

So, here's the data, and I've tried to simplify it after someone else explained it to me.

In June, Iowa's unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8%, the same as in April and slightly lower than last year. The state's labor force participation dropped to 66.5% from 66.7% in May, mainly due to more retirements. Nationally, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June. Iowa's not looking so bad by the numbers but tell that to someone who was just laid off.

Beth Townsend, Executive Director of Iowa Workforce Development, noted that despite economic challenges, Iowa's workforce stayed stable, with private industries adding 1,500 jobs. IowaWORKS.gov lists over 58,000 open positions, and the team is ready to assist job seekers.

The number of unemployed Iowans decreased to 46,600 in June from 46,900 in May. The total number of working Iowans dropped to 1,641,400, which is 3,200 fewer than in May and 21,400 fewer than a year ago.

Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment

There's that seasonal employment I warned you about earlier.  In June, Iowa added 300 nonfarm jobs, bringing the total to 1,610,000. Job gains in February and March were strong, but growth has been flat recently. Private industry saw increases in health care, social assistance, and professional services, while manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs. Government jobs fell by 1,200 due to summer break impacts on schools.

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Private industries with the biggest gains in June were health care and social assistance (+1,800 jobs) and professional and business services (+1,100 jobs). Retail trade, construction, and finance also saw job increases. Manufacturing experienced the largest loss (-1,000 jobs), particularly in chemical and food production. Leisure and hospitality also saw a decline (-800 jobs), mainly in accommodations and food services.

Compared to last June, Iowa has gained 20,900 jobs overall. Health care and social assistance led the gains (+7,100 jobs), followed by leisure and hospitality (+5,900 jobs). However, transportation and warehousing jobs decreased by 1,400, and retail jobs fell by 1,200. Manufacturing lost 300 jobs, primarily in nondurable goods.