The announcement that daily flights between Dubuque Regional Airport and Chicago O’Hare will end in January 2026 is disappointing, but does not come as a complete surprise to those who have been following the numbers behind the service.

Credit: City of Dubuque / Dubuque Regional Airport
Credit: City of Dubuque / Dubuque Regional Airport
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When Denver Air Connection began operating out of Dubuque in November 2024, the route was always considered a rebuilding effort. After more than two years without consistent commercial air service, the challenge was not just offering flights, but reestablishing the local populations travel habits. To make that possible, the service relied on a minimum revenue guarantee, a common tool used by small and mid-sized communities to attract air carriers while demand is developed.

“Denver Air Connection has been a terrific partner through this entire process and wanted these flights to be sustainable just as badly as we here in Dubuque did, but we exhausted the available federal funds and local contributions to the revenue guarantee and Denver Air cannot operate the service at a loss.”

-Todd Dalsing, Dubuque Regional Airport Director

Under that arrangement, the airline needed to reach an average passenger load of about 80 percent for the flights to cover their operating costs. While usage steadily improved over time, that level was never reached at Dubuque Regional Airport. During the first several months, planes were often lightly filled. After the schedule was adjusted in spring 2025 to better accommodate business travelers and connections, demand increased noticeably. By late summer, flights were averaging around 50 percent capacity and remained near that level into the fall season.

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Even with that progress, the financial gap remained significant. Ticket revenue covered only part of the cost of operating each flight, and the remaining difference was paid through a combination of federal funds and local contributions. City and airport officials have confirmed that those funds have now been fully spent. Continuing the service beyond mid-January would have required securing additional money to cover ongoing losses, which was not feasible.

“While it’s extremely disappointing to see this service come to an end, this is not the end of commercial air service in Dubuque. I truly believe we’ve shown the importance of air connectivity and those who used the service appreciated the convenience it offers. The use of the flights grew steadily, especially since May, and demonstrates there is a strong appetite for local air service in Dubuque. We are regrouping and will continue to explore alternative funding sources and to pursue carriers and flights that meet the needs of the Dubuque region.”

-Brad Cavanagh, Mayor of Dubuque

From an operational standpoint, the flights performed well. Completion rates were above 98 percent, on-time performance averaged around 85 percent, and travelers who used the service generally found it reliable and convenient. The broader impact was also meaningful. State aviation data estimates that the return of daily commercial service generated nearly $18 million in economic activity during its first year.

Given the upward trend in usage, the end of this route is frustrating, especially for those that were taking advantage of it. Thankfully, there may still be other opportunities for flights out of Dubuque. If the right deal came along, the past year shows there is demand for the service, only the financial realities must be addressed to make local flights last.

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