In 2021 and 2022, farmers saw strong prices leading to good income. As we head into 2023, it’s already looking like that’s not going to be the case again.

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At the Hawkeye Farm Show, Iowa State University Extension Economist Chad Hart gave a seminar about the 2023 market outlook. He says that we are already seeing weakness in prices.

“It's a combination of things going on,” says Hart. “The idea that we may see bigger crops as we look forward to 2023. But we're also seeing some weakness in demand.”

And as we go through March, Hart says we may continue to see prices continue to drop.

Hart adds the market will probably hit a low point at the end of the month when the USDA releases its acreage update.

“I think we'll actually see prices strengthened again as we move through April and May, especially if we do see some planting problems come up out there,” says Hart. “That will help dry prices back up again for a little while."

Then around harvest, with the expectation of a bigger crop, prices are expected to fall again.

Pouring corn grain into tractor trailer
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While it's hard to predict an event that will cause grain prices to boom as we saw with Ukraine, Hart says drought is still an ongoing concern. Other concerns lie with exports.

"Brazil has continued to increase both corn and soybean production,” says Hart. “They've been stealing some of that export market share from us and therefore that's that's hurting because of their large production, especially on the soybean crop this year."

 

He adds that inflation in the U.S. and around the globe is also going to impact the export market.

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